Project

Causal inference methods for mixed frequency macro-financial analysis

Code
12A0S25N
Duration
01 October 2024 → 30 September 2027
Funding
Research Foundation - Flanders (FWO)
Promotor
Research disciplines
  • Social sciences
    • Financial economics
    • International economics
    • Macroeconomic policy, macroeconomic aspects of public finance and general outlook
    • Econometric and statistical methods and methodology
    • Econometric modelling
Keywords
mixed frequency data sampling Dynamic causal inference Short- and long-term causality test
 
Project description

How quickly do shocks propagate through the economy? The current data-rich environment demands policymakers to find new ways of answering this crucial question in order to effectively time their policy responses. Various shocks, such as abrupt policy rate hikes or fluctuations in oil prices, have short- and/or long-term effects that propagate through the economy at different speeds. While macroeconomic aggregates such as GDP, unemployment, or inflation, require months, if not full quarters, to yield informative responses, information regarding financial markets’ reactions to shocks unfolds almost instantaneously. In this research project, I aim to develop robust mixed-frequency econometric tools to (i) quantify the impact of sudden changes on both the macroeconomic and financial environment, (ii) test for short- and long-term causality when variables are sampled at different frequencies to assess how enduring such shocks can be, and (iii) estimate the time lag needed for causality to arise in macroeconomic data. These tools will empower policymakers to navigate the complexities of the modern economic environment with precision and foresight.