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Social sciences
- Health informatics
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Medical and health sciences
- Epidemiology
- Tropical medicine
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Engineering and technology
- Modelling and simulation
Dengue, a global health threat with 5.3 million cases in 2019, involves intricate transmission dynamics. With no specific drug and a partially effective vaccine restricted to seropositive individuals, mitigation efforts focus on epidemic readiness through vector control, hospital preparedness, and effective communication. Dengue is endemic in 100+ countries and vectors are spreading northward; Sciensano even reported sightings in Flanders in 2022. Rising temperatures are fueling outbreaks and highlighting the need for urgent vigilance and countermeasures. During the COVID-19 pandemic, dengue incidence decreased unexpectedly, contrary to anticipated increases due to preventive measures, including mobility restrictions. This unexpected pattern reveals a knowledge gap in our understanding of dengue dynamics, prompting further research. Our research proposal addresses this gap by investigating why mobility is a crucial determinant of dengue dynamics. Our models, designed with adaptability in mind, will be applied to the city of Cienfuegos, Cuba. The proposed compartmental, spatially explicit, mobility-driven, stochastic model introduces a novel level of complexity, demanding a higher granularity of data. By incorporating daily mobility, we aim to clarify disease transmission complexities and contribute to refining public health strategies. This research delves into dengue dynamics in Cuba, laying the groundwork for broader insights applicable to other regions across the world.