Alpine ecosystems are warming up to two times faster than the global average with potentially severe repercussions for their rich and endangered biodiversity. Combined with warming, widespread land-use changes such as grazing abandonment are promoting the expansion of shrubs into alpine areas above the treeline. Unlike the majority of alpine plants growing close to the ground, shrubs are typically taller or assemble in dense carpets with closed canopies across these treeless landscapes. Shrub canopies could act as thermal insulator decoupling the sub-canopy climate (or ‘microclimate’) from the regional climate (or ‘macroclimate’). This microclimatic buffering effect through shrubs could in turn modify how small alpine plants experience macroclimate warming. In this project I will address this knowledge gap by integrating large-extent multidecadal observational data with fine-grained experiments into a novel modelling framework. I aim to establish (i) the link between shrub canopy cover and surface microclimate in the European alpine zone, and (ii) use this relationship to better explain past, and predict future, plant responses to climate and land-use change. Accounting for microclimate dynamics induced by changes in shrub canopy cover will provide an important piece of the jigsaw in forecasting the fate of alpine flora in our rapidly changing world, making it key to develop effective conservation strategies for alpine biodiversity.